I have two sets of pre-season projections: ESPN and RotoTimes. I don't have projected $ values, but just looking at the projected stats will give us an idea of where teams are at (hitting heavy, pitching heavy, balanced, neither, etc).
Just a quick look at the standings using projected stats and assuming no changes, FA pickups, or any other risk gets us a general ranking of this:
PLACE STDDEVThe surprise of the draft is clearly Todd who was consistently 1 or 2. Matt, Calvin, and Jason are a pretty solid 2, 3, 4. Then it gets crazy. Kelley is the most schitzo ranging from 5th to 10th. Basically, the middle is a toss up. The only thing fairly solid is that Brian and Jim are trailing the pack. I think Jim probably could have called that since he didn't pick up a 6th player until the 90th pick (53rd after keepers) and that pick was Mike Jacobs. Of course, these places are based off of category rankings. Anything could happen in a keeper league with playoffs.
Todd 1.25 0.50
Matt 2.00 0.82
Calvin 3.00 0.82
Jason 4.00 0.82
Dustin 5.75 1.26
Andy 6.75 1.71
Kelley 6.75 2.36
Dan 7.25 0.96
Brian 8.75 0.96
Jim 9.50 0.58
It was an interesting draft. The keepers guaranteed that. Despite the extra money many teams had, there wasn't really much draft inflation. People weren't throwing their money around quite like I thought they would. Calvin probably had the most money to play with yet he waited a long time to spend money after his first 4-5 guys drafted.
The overall money split was 64% hitting to 36% pitching. That includes keepers. Thirteen players were over $30 including two over $40. There were 30 players that cost $1.
The Teams:
Todd's Heaters
Todd's draft can be summed up as Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and guys Dan wanted. He's really hoping that "sophomore slump" thing doesn't exist because he has more than a few candidates. He also seems to like drafting players from his favorite team, the 1996 Mariners. Ken Griffey, Vizquel, and Moyer really skew the average age up a bit.
Balanced. Todd has a pretty balanced team. Generally decent at pitching and hitting. He's going to win SBs almost every week and probably get some serious runs because of that. His pitching is solid except that Chris Carpenter is hurt early.
Best Non-Keeper Value: Dan Wheeler, $6 (future Astros closer?)
The "what were you thinking?!?": Kerry Wood, $1. (injury waiting to happen)
Biggest risk: Ken Griffey Jr., $12
Breakout candidate: Anthony Reyes, $10
Matt's Utility Men
Matt wanted to spend money this season and he did. He had to wait 50 picks from the time he bought Jeremy Hermidia for $9 to start drafting his last 5 $1 players. I think he was napping between bringing up guys.
Balanced. His keepers really helped his pitching staff be in the top tier. Drafting Hoffman and Cordero will give him no worries on the closer front. The only question mark is Pedro who will undoubtable help Matt in the playoffs a ton. He's definitely more vulnerable in the first half of the season. His hitting will be fine if Reyes repeats his peformance of last season and Derrick Lee is good again. There's some big question marks on offense, but the anchors of Utley, Fielder, Lee, and Reyes should keep him consistent from week-to-week.
Best Non-Keeper Value: Pedro Martinez, $9 (depending on when he comes back)
The "what were you thinking?!?": Jeremy Hermidia, $9 (leaving him with $5 for 5 players 2/3 through the draft)
Biggest risk: Pedro Martinez, $9
Breakout candidate: John Maine, $10
Calvin's Slumpbusters
Calvin came in with the most money available with two keepers at $1 and a $2 keeper. He was throwing his money around early buying Bay, Delgado, Gordon, Lopez, and Oswalt. But I think he took on more risk than necessary. John Patterson, Ryan Dempster, Jim Edmonds, and a few others all have high probablilities of bombing/getting hurt. And they didn't come cheap either. So Calvin was left getting 5 for $5 at the end despite having so much money after keepers.
Balanced. Calvin is going to struggle with batting average and SBs against the top speed teams, but otherwise his hitting is solid. Especially of all of his keepers who were breakout guys last year continue what they did last season (which isn't a guarantee). Pitching wise Calvin will be solid if his pitchers do whats projected of them. After Oswalt there's not a lot of proven history. Patterson gets hurt and Wainwright, Chuck James, and Scott Olsen are either first time starters or are in the sophomore slump watch status. IPs will be and issue, but everything else should be good enough to win in any given week.
Best Non-Keeper Value: Ryan Dempster, $9 (assuming he closes all year)
The "what were you thinking?!?": John Patterson, $17 (great, but lots of injury risk)
Biggest risk: John Patterson & Jim Edmonds, $13
Breakout candidate: Adam Wainwright, $11
Prothero's Poppers
I had kept more "stars" than anyone else, thus had the least money at the start of the draft. This meant I wasn't in on any +$30 guys. Overall I think I drafted some good value and took on an acceptable amount of risk. My team is considerable younger than in years past. I did draft a few sentimental picks from the championship team from last year (Chipper, Nomar) to hang with my keepers.
Slightly Pitching-Oreiented. Other than the lack of saves which will keep me trolling the FA market all year, my pitching should win me plenty of games. Especially assuming Randy Johnson plays all year and is better than last season. This team was built on winning the averages (AVE, OPS, ERA, WHIP) and hoping the other stats fall into place. SBs will be a struggle, but the Poppers should compete in most hitting categories.
Best Non-Keeper Value: Josh Willingham, $16
The "what were you thinking?!?": Randy Johnson, $15 (too much for the risk)
Biggest risk: Randy Johnson
Breakout candidate: Kelly Johnson, $8
Dustin's Azzuri
Between Dusty doing Dan impressions and yelling at Jim, this draft was seriously entertaining. It appears Dusty's strategy for this draft was to draft as many potential keepers as possible. Should make for an interesting season if they all pan out or break out. My guess is a few will flame out and end up pissing Dusty off. He will need to spend his FA$ this season to plug holes as the season goes on. Dusty needs a team blog so we can continue the fun from the draft!
Pitching-Oriented. Dusty's pitching is simply more solid than his hitting. With the cheap keeper saves and the solid if not brilliant starters he should do well in pitching. Of course much of that depends on his ace, Ben Sheets, staying healthy. He will struggle to find SBs and all those young guys will kill his AVE and OPS. But he has a lot of guys that would be fun to have. And if Chris Young breaks out then Dusty may have his new favorite player (he looks and plays like Eric Davis).
Best Non-Keeper Value: Aaron Harang, $22 (Those K-BB make him valuable)
The "what were you thinking?!?": Kazuo Matsui, $7 (a little spendy for this never been)
Biggest risk: Ben Sheets
Breakout candidate: Pick 'em. Andre Either? Kouzmanoff? Chris Young?
Andy's Full Flanull
I think Andy is physically unable to draft power. The self proclaimed "Best Team Ever" isn't going to win a team HR derby competition. Andy ended up having a bunch of cash at the end of the draft, which of course isn't a good thing. If Andy drafted Luis Gonzalez he could have renamed his team to the "Has beens". Luis would fit right in with Helton, Shawn Green, Preston Wilson, Scott Hatteburg, and Paul LoDuca!
Pitching-Oriented. By keeping three starters he had a good base. Andy will need to win by taking the pitching categories (except saves) and hoping to take runs, AVE, and SBs on the hitting side. Andy may never win the HR, RBI, or OPS category all season. Andy should have picked up another closer and tried to get that last pitching category because his ERA and WHIP won't win every week.
Best Non-Keeper Value: Ryan Freel, $15 (SBs)
The "what were you thinking?!?": Shawn Green, $12 (he's no longer good)
Biggest risk: Todd Helton, $21 (another guy declining steadily)
Breakout candidate: Khalil Greene, $11
Kelley's FKaky
Kelley was on the fast track to spending $10 for 10 players at the end of the draft, but Dusty bailed him out by trading him some valuable cash with Weathers for Kouzmanoff. He was a big early spender nabbing Soriano ($40), Beltran ($39), and Peavy($27) for a pretty penny. He may have drafted enough talent to overcome his crazy keeper strategy. It's like he was throwing darts at a dartboard picking those guys :).
Hitting-Oriented. He's got some big names on the offense. Kelley could vastly improve himself with a few key FA pickups. Too many part-timers and guys not playing much doom his RBI, Runs and even HRs a little. But if he picks up some guys that play he'll be a force on offense. He should rarely lose the OPS category. On the pitching side, he's good enough to win most categories except maybe IP and Saves. If he didn't get Weathers in that trade he would not have had double digits in saves. Of course, even with Weathers he may not.
Best Non-Keeper Value: Dave Weathers, $6 (If he's the closer all year)
The "what were you thinking?!?": Ricky Weeks, $21 (i know...he's a keeper)
Biggest risk: Barry Bonds, $22 (just cause of his knee)
Breakout candidate: Chris Iannetta, $13
Dan's Pickle Weasels
Dan missing the draft - $0.
Dustin drafting for Dan - $0.
Many beers and shots of tequila - $10.
Listening to Dustin be "Dan" - Priceless
Hitting-Oriented. Dan probably has the best hitting team in the league. But his pitching is possibly the worst in the league. Of course, in head-to-head, that just may work. If Dan can get lucky on a few rookie pitchers in the FA market or make a key trade, he could be a force to be reckoned with.
Best Non-Keeper Value: Geoff Jenkins, $7 (off to a hot start...)
The "what were you thinking?!?": Jorge Julio, $17 (already lost his job)
Biggest risk: Armando Benitez, $7
Breakout candidate: Troy Tulowitzki, $12
Brian's Box Chowers
Brian stayed more sober this draft. Time will tell if it helped. It's definitely not as fun to yell "Sauza!", but it is fun to say. His draft strategy appears to be to load up on pitching that he can trade during the season.
Pitching-Oriented. If Lidge would have kept his job, he would have won saves every week. He still has 2 closers and another 2 guys who will get a few saves thoughout the season. Plus, he has a great ace in Smoltz and a solid 2-4 with Willis, Lowry, and Suppan. Unfortunately, the Box Chowers hitting resembles the Golden State Warriors of the late 80's. It's Berkman, Lee, and Andruw...and a bunch of guys who aren't going to help you win in the playoffs. If you've got hitting, expect a trade offer by June.
Best Non-Keeper Value: Noah Lowry, $8
The "what were you thinking?!?": Brad Lidge, $13
Biggest risk: Jason Isringhausen, $16
Breakout candidate: Shane Victorino, $7
Jim's Beaners
Former Champions Jim's Beaners are still trying to regain the magic of 2005. Jim looked a little shell shocked as he waited a loooong time to start drafting. Most of the studs were gone by then, but at least he has David Wright to keep him afloat. It will be interesting to see how the strategy to keep three RPs (1 closer) works out.
Hitting-Oriented. He is hitting oriented, but it appears his AVE and OPS could be bad. But he'll be good at everything else. Pitching will be an adventure. He's hoping Jason Schmidt is lights out for the Dodgers or else...
Best Non-Keeper Value: Aaron Rowand, $8
The "what were you thinking?!?": Oliver Perez, $9 (did you see his whip last season?)
Biggest risk: Cliff Floyd, $8
Breakout candidate: Cole Hamels, $19
Good luck for the season everyone!
1 comment:
The darts hath spoken! First place goes to FKAky!
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